Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ricegrowers Limited (SGLLV.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.22 - $392.74$368.06
Multi-Stage$62.05 - $67.89$64.92
Blended Fair Value$216.49
Current Price$11.00
Upside1,868.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.72%11.70%0.580.390.280.300.220.210.210.250.280.22
YoY Growth--49.65%40.42%-7.03%36.86%4.09%1.79%-16.24%-11.21%26.93%13.04%
Dividend Yield--5.29%5.97%4.41%4.33%3.31%4.06%3.16%2.96%3.33%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.3116.449.87
Cash Retained (M)59.7959.7959.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.31-16.44-9.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.4843.3549.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.6166.6166.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.650.75
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.650.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$206.22$368.06$392.74
Upside / Downside1,774.69%3,245.98%3,470.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.55140.10149.20158.90169.23180.23185.64
Payout Ratio54.55%61.64%68.73%75.82%82.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71.7686.35102.54120.48140.31162.21171.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)80.4781.2381.99
Year 2 PV (M)89.0490.7492.45
Year 3 PV (M)97.48100.28103.13
Year 4 PV (M)105.78109.85114.04
Year 5 PV (M)113.96119.46125.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,646.573,822.714,005.58
Equity Value (M)4,133.304,324.264,522.36
Shares Outstanding (M)66.6166.6166.61
Fair Value$62.05$64.92$67.89
Upside / Downside464.10%490.16%517.20%

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