Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Selic Corp Public Company Limited (SELIC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.64 - $44.30$41.52
Multi-Stage$7.18 - $7.87$7.52
Blended Fair Value$24.52
Current Price$2.70
Upside808.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS104.73%0.00%0.030.020.000.030.000.000.010.020.000.00
YoY Growth--52.66%435.97%-88.11%824.70%299.82%-92.65%-49.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.17%0.89%0.15%1.32%0.17%0.09%0.67%1.96%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.2217.0110.21
Cash Retained (M)112.90112.90112.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.22-17.01-10.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.6795.88102.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)611.04611.04611.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.64$41.52$44.30
Upside / Downside960.85%1,437.63%1,540.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.11144.96154.38164.42175.10186.49192.08
Payout Ratio17.06%31.65%46.23%60.82%75.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.2245.8771.38100.00132.05167.84177.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42.8143.2143.62
Year 2 PV (M)62.1563.3464.53
Year 3 PV (M)81.2683.5985.97
Year 4 PV (M)100.13103.98107.94
Year 5 PV (M)118.76124.50130.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,983.104,175.494,375.24
Equity Value (M)4,388.224,594.114,807.75
Shares Outstanding (M)611.04611.04611.04
Fair Value$7.18$7.52$7.87
Upside / Downside165.98%178.46%191.41%

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