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nForce Secure Public Company Limited (SECURE.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.66 - $15.87$13.14
Multi-Stage$20.38 - $22.39$21.36
Blended Fair Value$17.25
Current Price$12.90
Upside33.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.03%0.00%0.650.300.180.350.560.650.620.000.000.00
YoY Growth--116.67%66.67%-49.22%-36.55%-13.91%3.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.70%2.14%1.12%1.24%3.49%4.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9716.8610.11
Cash Retained (M)62.9362.9362.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.97-16.86-10.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.9646.0852.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.74102.74102.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.450.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.450.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Fair Value$10.66$13.14$15.87
Upside / Downside-17.35%1.88%23.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.85133.54132.25130.97129.70128.45132.30
Payout Ratio53.33%60.66%68.00%75.33%82.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71.9281.0189.9398.66107.22115.60122.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Year 1 PV (M)74.4775.2375.99
Year 2 PV (M)75.9977.5579.12
Year 3 PV (M)76.6479.0181.43
Year 4 PV (M)76.5679.7383.00
Year 5 PV (M)75.8879.8383.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,714.321,803.561,896.48
Equity Value (M)2,093.872,194.912,299.97
Shares Outstanding (M)102.74102.74102.74
Fair Value$20.38$21.36$22.39
Upside / Downside57.98%65.61%73.54%

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