Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Swedencare AB (publ) (SECARE.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.74 - $78.63$73.68
Multi-Stage$17.08 - $18.70$17.87
Blended Fair Value$45.78
Current Price$33.95
Upside34.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%33.71%0.230.220.200.110.070.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--4.58%10.37%86.63%53.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-24.96%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.35%0.78%0.09%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.607.884.73
Cash Retained (M)23.0023.0023.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.60-7.88-4.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.4015.1318.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)159.35159.35159.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.44%5.44%5.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.74$73.68$78.63
Upside / Downside96.57%117.04%131.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.0067.1071.4676.1081.0586.3288.90
Payout Ratio63.49%68.79%74.10%79.40%84.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.0046.1652.9560.4268.6577.6882.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.44%5.44%5.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.3743.7844.19
Year 2 PV (M)46.7447.6348.52
Year 3 PV (M)50.1151.5553.01
Year 4 PV (M)53.4955.5457.66
Year 5 PV (M)56.8759.6262.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,470.502,589.822,713.72
Equity Value (M)2,721.072,847.942,979.57
Shares Outstanding (M)159.35159.35159.35
Fair Value$17.08$17.87$18.70
Upside / Downside-49.70%-47.36%-44.92%

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