Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Standard Bank Group Limited (SBK.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,970.48 - $11,170.69$3,723.19
Multi-Stage$1,197.71 - $1,306.73$1,251.24
Blended Fair Value$2,487.21
Current Price$227.51
Upside993.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.18%10.46%17.3516.7212.957.246.7311.1810.619.347.787.16
YoY Growth--3.73%29.15%78.89%7.60%-39.84%5.36%13.66%20.10%8.56%11.70%
Dividend Yield--7.82%8.08%7.72%5.17%5.29%6.64%5.94%4.77%5.12%6.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93,673.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72,810.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,863.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,734.6011,709.137,025.48
Cash Retained (M)20,863.0020,863.0020,863.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,734.60-11,709.13-7,025.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,128.409,153.8813,837.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,667.691,667.691,667.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.285.498.30
LTM Dividend per Share43.6643.6643.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.285.498.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend44.9449.1551.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,970.48$3,723.19$11,170.69
Upside / Downside766.11%1,536.50%4,809.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93,673.0099,761.75106,246.26113,152.27120,507.16128,340.13132,190.33
Payout Ratio77.73%80.18%82.64%85.09%87.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72,810.0079,991.2387,798.4196,282.55105,498.68115,506.12122,276.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73,434.5174,130.5874,826.64
Year 2 PV (M)73,994.9875,404.3876,827.07
Year 3 PV (M)74,493.9676,632.4178,811.40
Year 4 PV (M)74,933.9077,815.6480,779.72
Year 5 PV (M)75,317.1978,955.0482,732.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,625,232.351,703,731.681,785,235.36
Equity Value (M)1,997,406.892,086,669.732,179,212.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,667.691,667.691,667.69
Fair Value$1,197.71$1,251.24$1,306.73
Upside / Downside426.44%449.97%474.36%

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