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Definitive Analysis

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Ramsay Health Care Limited (RHC.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.20 - $59.57$48.06
Multi-Stage$76.62 - $84.31$80.39
Blended Fair Value$64.22
Current Price$36.69
Upside75.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-12.91%-6.12%0.700.590.951.530.501.411.401.331.191.02
YoY Growth--19.79%-38.32%-37.85%205.20%-64.25%0.36%5.13%12.21%16.07%-22.77%
Dividend Yield--1.92%1.26%1.69%2.09%0.80%2.11%1.90%2.47%1.61%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)912.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)296.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)616.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)182.54114.0968.45
Cash Retained (M)616.20616.20616.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-182.54-114.09-68.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)433.66502.11547.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)229.45229.45229.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.892.192.39
LTM Dividend per Share1.291.291.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.892.192.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.183.483.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-1.39%-0.39%0.61%
Fair Value$38.20$48.06$59.57
Upside / Downside4.12%30.99%62.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)912.70909.18905.66902.17898.68895.21922.07
Payout Ratio32.49%43.99%55.49%66.99%78.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)296.50399.94502.57604.40705.44805.69852.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-1.39%-0.39%0.61%
Year 1 PV (M)370.61374.37378.13
Year 2 PV (M)431.58440.38449.26
Year 3 PV (M)480.98495.76510.84
Year 4 PV (M)520.22541.65563.73
Year 5 PV (M)550.59579.08608.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,225.7116,013.5216,833.60
Equity Value (M)17,579.7018,444.7519,344.29
Shares Outstanding (M)229.45229.45229.45
Fair Value$76.62$80.39$84.31
Upside / Downside108.82%119.10%129.78%

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