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Definitive Analysis

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Royal Unibrew A/S (RBREW.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,473.92 - $6,173.08$5,785.08
Multi-Stage$1,016.37 - $1,110.75$1,062.70
Blended Fair Value$3,423.89
Current Price$517.50
Upside561.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.18%0.00%14.4114.2913.7312.9611.9110.688.958.477.667.42
YoY Growth--0.83%4.05%5.97%8.83%11.52%19.32%5.71%10.56%3.17%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.62%3.11%2.30%2.05%1.79%2.18%1.83%2.12%2.61%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,564.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,475.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)312.80195.50117.30
Cash Retained (M)89.0089.0089.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-312.80-195.50-117.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-223.80-106.50-28.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.3950.3950.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share-4.44-2.11-0.56
LTM Dividend per Share29.2729.2729.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share-4.44-2.11-0.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend24.8327.1628.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,473.92$5,785.08$6,173.08
Upside / Downside571.29%1,017.89%1,092.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,564.001,665.661,773.931,889.232,012.032,142.822,207.10
Payout Ratio94.31%93.45%92.59%91.72%90.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,475.001,556.521,642.401,732.881,828.171,928.532,041.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,451.151,464.901,478.66
Year 2 PV (M)1,427.561,454.751,482.20
Year 3 PV (M)1,404.231,444.541,485.62
Year 4 PV (M)1,381.161,434.281,488.91
Year 5 PV (M)1,358.351,423.961,492.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,189.0446,323.3948,539.42
Equity Value (M)51,211.5053,545.8255,966.89
Shares Outstanding (M)50.3950.3950.39
Fair Value$1,016.37$1,062.70$1,110.75
Upside / Downside96.40%105.35%114.64%

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