Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Prima Globalindo Logistik Tbk (PPGL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$915.78 - $2,190.25$2,052.59
Multi-Stage$326.10 - $356.65$341.10
Blended Fair Value$1,196.84
Current Price$110.00
Upside988.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS38.40%0.00%10.544.008.990.001.952.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--163.42%-55.50%0.00%-100.00%-6.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.43%4.60%7.43%0.00%2.14%1.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,493.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,041.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,452.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,698.631,061.64636.99
Cash Retained (M)3,452.053,452.053,452.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,698.63-1,061.64-636.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,753.422,390.412,815.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)771.18771.18771.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.273.103.65
LTM Dividend per Share6.546.546.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.273.103.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.819.6410.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$915.78$2,052.59$2,190.25
Upside / Downside732.53%1,765.99%1,891.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,493.159,045.209,633.1410,259.2910,926.1511,636.3511,985.44
Payout Ratio59.35%65.48%71.61%77.74%83.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,041.105,923.156,898.577,975.789,163.8710,472.7111,086.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,508.655,560.865,613.08
Year 2 PV (M)5,966.836,080.486,195.20
Year 3 PV (M)6,415.786,599.956,787.62
Year 4 PV (M)6,855.637,119.277,390.46
Year 5 PV (M)7,286.517,638.458,003.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)219,447.70230,047.10241,052.17
Equity Value (M)251,481.09263,046.12275,042.39
Shares Outstanding (M)771.18771.18771.18
Fair Value$326.10$341.10$356.65
Upside / Downside196.45%210.09%224.23%

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