Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northern Bear PLC (NTBR.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.72 - $10.13$6.73
Multi-Stage$3.46 - $3.78$3.62
Blended Fair Value$5.17
Current Price$0.65
Upside702.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-17.98%7.53%0.020.040.000.000.000.050.050.050.020.02
YoY Growth---58.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.14%-0.27%110.20%33.21%99.25%
Dividend Yield--2.69%7.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.35%7.24%6.64%4.01%3.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.790.490.29
Cash Retained (M)2.992.992.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.79-0.49-0.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.202.492.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.8515.8515.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Fair Value$4.72$6.73$10.13
Upside / Downside631.72%943.23%1,470.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3.934.184.464.755.055.385.54
Payout Ratio24.02%37.22%50.41%63.61%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.941.562.253.023.884.845.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Year 1 PV (M)1.401.421.43
Year 2 PV (M)1.821.861.89
Year 3 PV (M)2.212.272.34
Year 4 PV (M)2.562.662.76
Year 5 PV (M)2.883.023.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)43.9846.1048.31
Equity Value (M)54.8557.3359.89
Shares Outstanding (M)15.8515.8515.85
Fair Value$3.46$3.62$3.78
Upside / Downside436.63%460.82%485.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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