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Definitive Analysis

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Tencent Holdings Limited (NNND.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,028.11 - $4,444.85$2,495.02
Multi-Stage$516.32 - $565.05$540.24
Blended Fair Value$1,517.63
Current Price$463.16
Upside227.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.26%32.27%3.102.251.391.341.110.890.730.540.400.28
YoY Growth--37.54%62.01%3.59%20.93%24.34%22.71%34.13%36.58%40.11%49.91%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.79%0.42%0.44%0.21%0.26%0.23%0.17%0.21%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208,003.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43,303.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)164,700.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41,600.6026,000.3815,600.23
Cash Retained (M)164,700.00164,700.00164,700.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-41,600.60-26,000.38-15,600.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)123,099.40138,699.63149,099.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,306.649,306.649,306.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.2314.9016.02
LTM Dividend per Share4.654.654.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.2314.9016.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.8819.5620.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.33%7.33%7.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,028.11$2,495.02$4,444.85
Upside / Downside121.98%438.70%859.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208,003.00221,523.20235,922.20251,257.15267,588.86284,982.14293,531.60
Payout Ratio20.82%34.65%48.49%62.33%76.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43,303.0076,768.33114,401.20156,602.00203,805.55256,483.92271,516.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.33%7.33%7.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70,850.7771,522.3472,193.91
Year 2 PV (M)97,444.1099,300.13101,173.68
Year 3 PV (M)123,107.56126,641.54130,242.50
Year 4 PV (M)147,865.18153,551.66159,400.59
Year 5 PV (M)171,740.42180,035.55188,648.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,194,153.114,396,732.274,607,064.61
Equity Value (M)4,805,161.145,027,783.495,258,723.45
Shares Outstanding (M)9,306.649,306.649,306.64
Fair Value$516.32$540.24$565.05
Upside / Downside11.48%16.64%22.00%

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