Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Next Capital Public Company Limited (NCAP.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.49 - $5.34$4.36
Multi-Stage$7.31 - $8.06$7.68
Blended Fair Value$6.02
Current Price$3.22
Upside86.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.130.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)523.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)493.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.7465.4639.28
Cash Retained (M)493.75493.75493.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.74-65.46-39.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)389.01428.28454.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.49$4.36$5.34
Upside / Downside8.40%35.30%65.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)523.72518.48513.29508.16503.08498.05512.99
Payout Ratio5.72%22.58%39.43%56.29%73.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.97117.06202.41286.04367.97448.24474.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)108.59109.70110.80
Year 2 PV (M)174.17177.74181.35
Year 3 PV (M)228.32235.38242.58
Year 4 PV (M)272.46283.75295.39
Year 5 PV (M)307.87323.90340.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,776.099,233.089,708.92
Equity Value (M)9,867.4910,363.5510,879.64
Shares Outstanding (M)1,350.001,350.001,350.00
Fair Value$7.31$7.68$8.06
Upside / Downside127.00%138.41%150.28%

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