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Definitive Analysis

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Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (N2IU.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.45 - $26.01$24.38
Multi-Stage$3.53 - $3.86$3.70
Blended Fair Value$14.04
Current Price$1.43
Upside881.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.70%12.54%0.080.090.100.060.030.050.050.050.040.03
YoY Growth---5.51%-6.11%55.40%91.47%-39.82%6.50%1.10%28.88%28.48%15.01%
Dividend Yield--6.69%7.19%5.86%3.34%1.48%2.75%2.41%3.16%2.40%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)689.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)316.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)372.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)137.8686.1651.70
Cash Retained (M)372.46372.46372.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-137.86-86.16-51.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)234.60286.29320.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,270.375,270.375,270.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.45$24.38$26.01
Upside / Downside490.76%1,604.58%1,718.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)689.30734.10781.82832.64886.76944.40972.73
Payout Ratio45.97%54.77%63.58%72.39%81.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)316.84402.09497.08602.72719.99849.96899.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)372.93376.46380.00
Year 2 PV (M)427.59435.74443.96
Year 3 PV (M)480.87494.67508.74
Year 4 PV (M)532.77553.26574.34
Year 5 PV (M)583.34611.51640.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,222.3217,005.8717,819.40
Equity Value (M)18,619.8219,477.5120,367.20
Shares Outstanding (M)5,270.375,270.375,270.37
Fair Value$3.53$3.70$3.86
Upside / Downside147.06%158.44%170.24%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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