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Moncler S.p.A. (MONC.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$469.70 - $924.82$866.69
Multi-Stage$144.68 - $158.30$151.36
Blended Fair Value$509.03
Current Price$48.39
Upside951.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.26%28.67%1.151.120.590.450.000.370.260.170.130.11
YoY Growth--2.50%88.52%33.38%0.00%-100.00%43.12%54.90%30.41%16.22%20.06%
Dividend Yield--2.25%2.01%1.20%0.70%0.00%0.93%0.89%0.65%0.78%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,259.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)659.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)600.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)251.93157.4594.47
Cash Retained (M)600.49600.49600.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-251.93-157.45-94.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)348.56443.03506.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)270.87270.87270.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.641.87
LTM Dividend per Share2.432.432.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.641.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.724.074.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$469.70$866.69$924.82
Upside / Downside870.66%1,691.05%1,811.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,259.641,341.511,428.711,521.581,620.481,725.811,777.58
Payout Ratio52.33%59.86%67.40%74.93%82.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)659.15803.07962.911,140.141,336.341,553.231,644.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)748.13755.22762.31
Year 2 PV (M)835.67851.59867.65
Year 3 PV (M)921.79948.25975.21
Year 4 PV (M)1,006.501,045.211,085.02
Year 5 PV (M)1,089.821,142.461,197.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,587.5636,258.1537,992.68
Equity Value (M)39,189.4741,000.8842,879.99
Shares Outstanding (M)270.87270.87270.87
Fair Value$144.68$151.36$158.30
Upside / Downside198.98%212.80%227.14%

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