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Monadelphous Group Limited (MND.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$135.20 - $293.01$274.60
Multi-Stage$45.25 - $49.47$47.32
Blended Fair Value$160.96
Current Price$17.56
Upside816.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.04%-4.46%0.620.450.420.400.340.420.530.540.510.66
YoY Growth--38.37%4.96%6.74%16.91%-18.77%-21.07%-1.92%6.72%-23.54%-31.83%
Dividend Yield--3.51%3.41%3.63%4.00%3.26%3.87%2.80%3.60%3.63%8.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.1818.2410.94
Cash Retained (M)40.6340.6340.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.18-18.24-10.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.4422.3929.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.0499.0499.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.230.30
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.230.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$135.20$274.60$293.01
Upside / Downside669.93%1,463.76%1,568.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.92155.41165.51176.27187.73199.93205.93
Payout Ratio72.16%75.73%79.29%82.86%86.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.30117.69131.24146.06162.25179.94190.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)109.55110.59111.62
Year 2 PV (M)113.72115.88118.07
Year 3 PV (M)117.81121.19124.64
Year 4 PV (M)121.82126.51131.32
Year 5 PV (M)125.75131.83138.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,892.804,080.824,276.04
Equity Value (M)4,481.454,686.824,899.83
Shares Outstanding (M)99.0499.0499.04
Fair Value$45.25$47.32$49.47
Upside / Downside157.68%169.48%181.73%

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