Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keystone REIT Ltd. (KSTN.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - SpecialtySector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.50 - $39.42$32.66
Multi-Stage$48.71 - $53.63$51.12
Blended Fair Value$41.89
Current Price$9.52
Upside339.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.430.260.230.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--65.11%12.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.29%5.05%4.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)563.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)483.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)112.7370.4642.27
Cash Retained (M)483.65483.65483.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-112.73-70.46-42.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)370.92413.19441.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.40172.40172.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.152.402.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.152.402.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.622.863.02
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$26.50$32.66$39.42
Upside / Downside178.36%243.03%314.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)563.67558.03552.45546.92541.46536.04552.12
Payout Ratio14.20%29.36%44.52%59.68%74.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.02163.82245.94326.39405.22482.44510.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)150.61152.14153.68
Year 2 PV (M)207.87212.13216.44
Year 3 PV (M)253.63261.47269.48
Year 4 PV (M)289.49301.49313.85
Year 5 PV (M)316.86333.36350.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,178.367,552.167,941.36
Equity Value (M)8,396.818,812.759,245.35
Shares Outstanding (M)172.40172.40172.40
Fair Value$48.71$51.12$53.63
Upside / Downside411.61%436.95%463.31%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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