Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $4.72 - $7.35 | $5.94 |
| Multi-Stage | $9.69 - $10.64 | $10.16 |
| Blended Fair Value | $8.05 | |
| Current Price | $3.96 | |
| Upside | 103.19% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.24% | -1.48% | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -12.68% | -35.45% | 120.00% | -26.69% | -11.43% | 20.31% | -15.79% | 33.33% | -21.92% | 1.40% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.26% | 7.41% | 10.92% | 3.74% | 7.37% | 10.55% | 6.57% | 8.04% | 6.80% | 10.16% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 983.23 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 617.43 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 365.81 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 196.65 | 122.90 | 73.74 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 365.81 | 365.81 | 365.81 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -196.65 | -122.90 | -73.74 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 169.16 | 242.90 | 292.06 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,986.75 | 1,986.75 | 1,986.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.86% | 6.86% | 6.86% |
| Growth Rate | -1.40% | -0.40% | 0.60% |
| Fair Value | $4.72 | $5.94 | $7.35 |
| Upside / Downside | 19.26% | 49.90% | 85.60% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 983.23 | 979.29 | 975.37 | 971.45 | 967.56 | 963.68 | 992.59 |
| Payout Ratio | 62.80% | 68.24% | 73.68% | 79.12% | 84.56% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 617.43 | 668.23 | 718.62 | 768.60 | 818.16 | 867.31 | 918.15 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.86% | 6.86% | 6.86% |
| Growth Rate | -1.40% | -0.40% | 0.60% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 619.03 | 625.31 | 631.59 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 616.69 | 629.26 | 641.96 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 611.01 | 629.79 | 648.95 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 602.52 | 627.33 | 652.91 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 591.68 | 622.30 | 654.18 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 16,206.81 | 17,045.50 | 17,918.56 |
| Equity Value (M) | 19,247.74 | 20,179.50 | 21,148.15 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,986.75 | 1,986.75 | 1,986.75 |
| Fair Value | $9.69 | $10.16 | $10.64 |
| Upside / Downside | 144.65% | 156.49% | 168.80% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | 0.55% | $0.71 | 28.86% |
| UHS | Universal Health Services, Inc. | 0.55% | $1.21 | 5.70% |
| 0I0T.L | Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.81 | 11.41% |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | 0.54% | $0.12 | 17.69% |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | 0.54% | $5.79 | 28.28% |
| TECH | Bio-Techne Corporation | 0.54% | $0.32 | 64.31% |
| TRU | TransUnion | 0.54% | $0.45 | 21.24% |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 0.54% | $0.89 | 26.39% |
| 0R2Z.L | Mastercard Incorporated | 0.52% | $2.96 | 18.79% |
| DHR | Danaher Corporation | 0.52% | $1.19 | 24.18% |
| MKSI | MKS Inc. | 0.52% | $0.87 | 21.15% |
| 0JT5.L | Lam Research Corporation | 0.51% | $0.93 | 20.32% |
| 0JZ0.L | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 0.51% | $3.22 | 16.93% |
| EVTC | EVERTEC, Inc. | 0.51% | $0.15 | 6.55% |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | 0.51% | $2.01 | 6.83% |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | 0.51% | $2.05 | 8.36% |
| PCG | Pacific Gas & Electric Co. | 0.51% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | 0.50% | $2.11 | 11.01% |
| FBIO | Fortress Biotech, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.02 | 16.65% |
| HWKN | Hawkins, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.73 | 18.33% |
| NMRK | Newmark Group, Inc. | 0.50% | $0.08 | 20.64% |
| PRLH | Pearl Holdings Acquisition Corp | 0.50% | $0.06 | 54.69% |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | 0.48% | $1.02 | 7.46% |
| FCAX | Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. | 0.48% | $0.05 | 6.11% |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | 0.48% | $0.54 | 13.95% |
| AAON | AAON, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.37 | 30.87% |
| CR | Crane Company | 0.47% | $0.88 | 14.07% |
| HGTY | Hagerty, Inc. | 0.47% | $0.06 | 12.93% |
| IDCC | InterDigital, Inc. | 0.47% | $1.55 | 10.87% |
| PCG-PI | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 4.36% | 0.47% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| SEB | Seaboard Corporation | 0.47% | $20.86 | 5.03% |
| AMEH | Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.18 | 93.62% |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.46% | $0.23 | 7.15% |
| KAI | Kadant Inc. | 0.46% | $1.32 | 15.23% |
| PRGS | Progress Software Corporation | 0.46% | $0.19 | 17.10% |
| UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | 0.46% | $2.60 | 19.86% |
| WWE | World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. | 0.46% | $0.46 | 21.62% |
| APH | Amphenol Corporation | 0.45% | $0.62 | 20.92% |
| DIS | The Walt Disney Company | 0.45% | $0.50 | 7.30% |
| ENTG | Entegris, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.40 | 21.08% |
| PCG-PC | Pacific Gas and Electric Company PFD 1ST 5% | 0.45% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 0.45% | $0.68 | 11.54% |
| REVG | REV Group, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.27 | 14.08% |
| RYAN | Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 0.44% | $0.22 | 87.54% |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | 0.44% | $0.16 | 14.97% |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 0.44% | $0.96 | 13.90% |
| WING | Wingstop Inc. | 0.44% | $1.14 | 18.31% |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 0.43% | $0.46 | 15.57% |
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.28 | 13.63% |
| MTRN | Materion Corporation | 0.42% | $0.55 | 58.77% |