Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jungheinrich AG (JUNGH.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$283.41 - $693.90$650.29
Multi-Stage$100.08 - $109.59$104.74
Blended Fair Value$377.52
Current Price$39.96
Upside844.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.60%10.35%0.740.670.670.420.470.490.490.430.390.34
YoY Growth--10.46%0.00%59.61%-10.65%-4.09%0.00%13.97%11.22%14.88%21.73%
Dividend Yield--2.30%1.90%2.08%1.59%1.14%3.51%1.63%1.19%1.24%1.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)355.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)275.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.1844.4926.69
Cash Retained (M)275.37275.37275.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.18-44.49-26.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)204.19230.89248.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.00102.00102.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.002.262.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.002.262.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.793.053.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$283.41$650.29$693.90
Upside / Downside609.24%1,527.35%1,636.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)355.89379.03403.66429.90457.84487.60502.23
Payout Ratio22.62%36.10%49.57%63.05%76.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.52136.83200.12271.05350.37438.84464.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)127.22128.43129.64
Year 2 PV (M)173.01176.30179.63
Year 3 PV (M)217.89224.14230.52
Year 4 PV (M)261.88271.95282.31
Year 5 PV (M)304.99319.72335.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,122.789,563.4110,020.91
Equity Value (M)10,207.7610,683.9611,178.01
Shares Outstanding (M)102.00102.00102.00
Fair Value$100.08$104.74$109.59
Upside / Downside150.44%162.12%174.25%

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