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Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.08 - $456.35$245.67
Multi-Stage$105.85 - $115.58$110.63
Blended Fair Value$178.15
Current Price$205.32
Upside-13.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.42%54.26%2.402.162.041.671.341.170.970.760.801.66
YoY Growth--11.29%5.75%22.28%24.78%14.07%20.51%28.51%-5.81%-51.62%5,176.87%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.59%2.07%2.11%1.63%2.11%2.18%1.48%2.30%7.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)426.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)169.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.3153.3231.99
Cash Retained (M)256.74256.74256.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.31-53.32-31.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.43203.42224.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)68.8668.8668.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.492.953.26
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.492.953.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.965.425.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$156.08$245.67$456.35
Upside / Downside-23.98%19.65%122.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)426.54454.26483.79515.23548.72584.39601.92
Payout Ratio39.81%49.85%59.88%69.92%79.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)169.80226.43289.72360.27438.77525.95556.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)206.07208.02209.98
Year 2 PV (M)239.95244.52249.13
Year 3 PV (M)271.55279.35287.29
Year 4 PV (M)300.98312.55324.46
Year 5 PV (M)328.34344.20360.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,941.826,228.816,526.79
Equity Value (M)7,288.717,617.467,958.31
Shares Outstanding (M)68.8668.8668.86
Fair Value$105.85$110.63$115.58
Upside / Downside-48.44%-46.12%-43.71%

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