Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HgCapital Trust plc (HGT.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.72 - $27.73$19.14
Multi-Stage$10.87 - $11.88$11.37
Blended Fair Value$15.26
Current Price$5.15
Upside196.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.04%5.20%0.070.070.070.050.040.040.040.050.030.03
YoY Growth--0.00%-13.05%57.97%6.18%10.60%7.43%-25.81%55.00%25.00%-33.33%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.51%2.13%1.12%1.46%1.56%2.10%2.86%2.12%2.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)358.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)304.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.8044.8726.92
Cash Retained (M)304.05304.05304.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.80-44.87-26.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)232.25259.18277.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)457.73457.73457.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate4.95%5.95%6.95%
Fair Value$13.72$19.14$27.73
Upside / Downside166.48%271.72%438.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)358.98380.35402.99426.98452.40479.33493.71
Payout Ratio15.30%30.24%45.18%60.12%75.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.93115.02182.07256.70339.57431.39456.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate4.95%5.95%6.95%
Year 1 PV (M)103.81104.80105.79
Year 2 PV (M)148.32151.16154.02
Year 3 PV (M)188.73194.18199.73
Year 4 PV (M)225.33234.04243.00
Year 5 PV (M)258.37270.91283.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,051.404,248.124,452.42
Equity Value (M)4,975.965,203.225,438.91
Shares Outstanding (M)457.73457.73457.73
Fair Value$10.87$11.37$11.88
Upside / Downside111.09%120.73%130.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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