Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gunanusa Eramandiri Tbk. (GUNA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$254.25 - $395.06$319.36
Multi-Stage$583.22 - $642.64$612.34
Blended Fair Value$465.85
Current Price$268.00
Upside73.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.008.643.245.760.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%166.36%-43.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65,688.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17,949.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,738.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,137.618,211.004,926.60
Cash Retained (M)47,738.5547,738.5547,738.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,137.61-8,211.00-4,926.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)34,600.9439,527.5442,811.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,437.502,437.502,437.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.2016.2217.56
LTM Dividend per Share7.367.367.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.2016.2217.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.5623.5824.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$254.25$319.36$395.06
Upside / Downside-5.13%19.16%47.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65,688.0365,031.1564,380.8363,737.0363,099.6662,468.6664,342.72
Payout Ratio27.33%39.86%52.40%64.93%77.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17,949.4825,921.5933,732.4741,384.5448,880.1956,221.7959,517.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)24,136.7724,383.0624,629.35
Year 2 PV (M)29,247.1129,847.0330,453.05
Year 3 PV (M)33,411.0634,444.3235,498.67
Year 4 PV (M)36,745.3638,268.2839,838.06
Year 5 PV (M)39,354.2541,403.5243,537.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,258,694.941,324,238.101,392,483.66
Equity Value (M)1,421,589.491,492,584.321,566,440.07
Shares Outstanding (M)2,437.502,437.502,437.50
Fair Value$583.22$612.34$642.64
Upside / Downside117.62%128.49%139.79%

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