Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Galliford Try Holdings PLC (GFRD.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.13 - $4.39$3.76
Multi-Stage$6.31 - $6.92$6.61
Blended Fair Value$5.18
Current Price$4.20
Upside23.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-14.77%-9.84%0.170.230.090.060.010.370.760.720.690.56
YoY Growth---27.69%152.08%52.38%384.62%-96.66%-51.31%5.27%4.26%22.77%20.28%
Dividend Yield--3.96%9.42%4.68%3.52%0.88%31.32%12.07%8.25%6.62%6.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.966.854.11
Cash Retained (M)15.5015.5015.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.96-6.85-4.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.548.6511.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.24105.24105.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate-4.23%-3.23%-2.23%
Fair Value$3.13$3.76$4.39
Upside / Downside-25.43%-10.57%4.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.8053.0351.3249.6748.0746.5247.91
Payout Ratio71.72%75.37%79.03%82.69%86.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3039.9740.5641.0741.5041.8644.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate-4.23%-3.23%-2.23%
Year 1 PV (M)36.4636.8437.22
Year 2 PV (M)33.7434.4535.16
Year 3 PV (M)31.1532.1433.15
Year 4 PV (M)28.7129.9331.19
Year 5 PV (M)26.4227.8229.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)507.21534.25562.43
Equity Value (M)663.68695.42728.43
Shares Outstanding (M)105.24105.24105.24
Fair Value$6.31$6.61$6.92
Upside / Downside50.15%57.33%64.79%

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