Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

General Dynamics Corporation (GD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242.29 - $462.68$330.91
Multi-Stage$290.37 - $318.16$304.00
Blended Fair Value$317.46
Current Price$332.17
Upside-4.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.83%6.40%5.605.235.024.824.544.223.943.613.343.20
YoY Growth--7.07%4.31%4.11%6.05%7.64%7.16%9.03%8.23%4.35%6.20%
Dividend Yield--2.06%1.80%2.16%2.01%2.45%3.16%2.29%1.65%1.78%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,215.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,577.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,638.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)843.00526.88316.13
Cash Retained (M)2,638.002,638.002,638.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-843.00-526.88-316.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,795.002,111.132,321.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.85272.85272.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.587.748.51
LTM Dividend per Share5.785.785.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.587.748.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.3613.5214.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate2.46%3.46%4.46%
Fair Value$242.29$330.91$462.68
Upside / Downside-27.06%-0.38%39.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,215.004,360.724,511.474,667.444,828.804,995.745,145.61
Payout Ratio37.41%47.93%58.45%68.97%79.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,577.002,090.142,636.883,218.933,838.074,496.164,759.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate2.46%3.46%4.46%
Year 1 PV (M)1,922.251,941.011,959.77
Year 2 PV (M)2,230.282,274.032,318.20
Year 3 PV (M)2,503.882,577.912,653.39
Year 4 PV (M)2,745.672,854.442,966.41
Year 5 PV (M)2,958.093,105.293,258.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,866.3170,193.7773,652.40
Equity Value (M)79,226.4882,946.4686,808.47
Shares Outstanding (M)272.85272.85272.85
Fair Value$290.37$304.00$318.16
Upside / Downside-12.58%-8.48%-4.22%

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