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Definitive Analysis

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Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242.47 - $629.60$368.31
Multi-Stage$179.76 - $195.69$187.58
Blended Fair Value$277.95
Current Price$153.30
Upside81.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.37%26.30%5.194.194.142.831.831.431.521.170.720.39
YoY Growth--23.93%1.32%45.99%54.55%27.91%-5.78%29.71%62.60%85.41%-22.67%
Dividend Yield--3.39%4.14%4.37%3.86%1.51%1.84%3.41%4.04%7.72%7.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)347.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)309.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.4443.4026.04
Cash Retained (M)37.5037.5037.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.44-43.40-26.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-31.94-5.9011.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.0133.0133.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.97-0.180.35
LTM Dividend per Share9.389.389.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.97-0.180.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.419.209.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$242.47$368.31$629.60
Upside / Downside58.16%140.25%310.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)347.20369.77393.80419.40446.66475.69489.96
Payout Ratio89.20%89.36%89.52%89.68%89.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)309.70330.42352.53376.12401.28428.12453.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)299.85302.69305.53
Year 2 PV (M)290.31295.84301.42
Year 3 PV (M)281.08289.15297.37
Year 4 PV (M)272.14282.60293.37
Year 5 PV (M)263.48276.20289.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,527.074,745.734,972.76
Equity Value (M)5,933.936,192.226,459.87
Shares Outstanding (M)33.0133.0133.01
Fair Value$179.76$187.58$195.69
Upside / Downside17.26%22.36%27.65%

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