Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCR-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.98 - $13.08$10.96
Multi-Stage$21.99 - $24.19$23.07
Blended Fair Value$17.02
Current Price$18.15
Upside-6.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.09%0.31%0.860.860.550.480.880.961.000.980.940.89
YoY Growth---0.15%57.35%13.74%-45.40%-7.80%-4.15%1.45%4.92%5.04%6.93%
Dividend Yield--5.22%5.55%3.49%2.69%5.35%7.03%4.67%4.90%4.69%4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)261.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)185.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.2232.6419.58
Cash Retained (M)75.3375.3375.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.22-32.64-19.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.1142.6955.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)212.86212.86212.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.200.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.200.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-3.72%-2.72%-1.72%
Fair Value$8.98$10.96$13.08
Upside / Downside-50.54%-39.60%-27.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)261.09254.00247.10240.38233.85227.50234.32
Payout Ratio71.15%74.92%78.69%82.46%86.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)185.76190.29194.44198.22201.65204.75216.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-3.72%-2.72%-1.72%
Year 1 PV (M)176.33178.16179.99
Year 2 PV (M)166.96170.44173.97
Year 3 PV (M)157.72162.68167.75
Year 4 PV (M)148.68154.95161.42
Year 5 PV (M)139.89147.31155.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,890.284,096.554,311.47
Equity Value (M)4,679.864,910.105,149.64
Shares Outstanding (M)212.86212.86212.86
Fair Value$21.99$23.07$24.19
Upside / Downside21.13%27.09%33.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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