Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Engie Brasil Energia S.A. (EGIE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.99 - $99.54$72.75
Multi-Stage$93.49 - $102.73$98.02
Blended Fair Value$85.39
Current Price$40.70
Upside109.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.89%0.48%1.392.922.803.421.522.772.441.031.430.86
YoY Growth---52.34%4.09%-18.14%125.04%-45.11%13.61%137.29%-27.95%65.26%-34.86%
Dividend Yield--3.60%7.38%6.93%7.79%3.53%6.97%5.44%3.07%4.10%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,034.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,204.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,829.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)606.86379.29227.57
Cash Retained (M)1,829.461,829.461,829.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-606.86-379.29-227.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,222.601,450.171,601.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)815.93815.93815.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.501.781.96
LTM Dividend per Share1.481.481.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.501.781.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.983.253.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Fair Value$53.99$72.75$99.54
Upside / Downside32.66%78.74%144.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,034.303,086.843,140.283,194.653,249.963,306.233,405.42
Payout Ratio39.71%49.77%59.82%69.88%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,204.851,536.201,878.662,232.522,598.072,975.613,150.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Year 1 PV (M)1,431.191,445.401,459.61
Year 2 PV (M)1,630.611,663.151,696.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,805.301,859.601,914.98
Year 4 PV (M)1,957.292,036.182,117.43
Year 5 PV (M)2,088.492,194.232,304.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,369.4770,780.5474,328.40
Equity Value (M)76,282.3479,979.1083,820.64
Shares Outstanding (M)815.93815.93815.93
Fair Value$93.49$98.02$102.73
Upside / Downside129.71%140.84%152.41%

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