Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.46 - $84.85$70.58
Multi-Stage$71.61 - $78.52$75.00
Blended Fair Value$72.79
Current Price$56.75
Upside28.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.01%2.49%0.490.200.000.000.401.501.391.120.780.55
YoY Growth--150.78%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-73.47%7.81%24.35%43.61%41.78%43.03%
Dividend Yield--1.13%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.83%5.27%2.67%2.04%1.70%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,630.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)414.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,216.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)926.00578.75347.25
Cash Retained (M)4,216.004,216.004,216.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-926.00-578.75-347.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,290.003,637.253,868.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)652.25652.25652.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.045.585.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.045.585.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.686.216.57
WACC / Discount Rate10.42%10.42%10.42%
Growth Rate0.49%1.49%2.49%
Fair Value$57.46$70.58$84.85
Upside / Downside1.26%24.38%49.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,630.004,699.004,769.044,840.124,912.254,985.465,135.03
Payout Ratio8.94%25.15%41.37%57.58%73.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)414.001,181.961,972.712,786.783,624.674,486.924,749.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.42%10.42%10.42%
Growth Rate0.49%1.49%2.49%
Year 1 PV (M)1,059.861,070.411,080.96
Year 2 PV (M)1,586.201,617.931,649.97
Year 3 PV (M)2,009.302,069.882,131.67
Year 4 PV (M)2,343.462,438.142,535.67
Year 5 PV (M)2,601.272,733.302,870.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,106.4838,989.8640,948.96
Equity Value (M)46,706.5748,919.5251,217.85
Shares Outstanding (M)652.25652.25652.25
Fair Value$71.61$75.00$78.52
Upside / Downside26.18%32.16%38.37%

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