Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cury Construtora e Incorporadora S.A. (CURY3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$351.88 - $575.67$539.49
Multi-Stage$94.00 - $102.88$98.36
Blended Fair Value$318.92
Current Price$34.57
Upside822.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.19%21.83%1.611.090.500.550.560.450.470.230.000.27
YoY Growth--47.26%118.90%-9.09%-2.94%26.52%-4.70%104.28%0.00%-100.00%19.58%
Dividend Yield--6.54%5.39%3.88%7.24%5.80%4.72%4.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)871.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)441.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.25108.9165.34
Cash Retained (M)441.91441.91441.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.25-108.91-65.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)267.66333.00376.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.98300.98300.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.111.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.431.431.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.111.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.322.532.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$351.88$539.49$575.67
Upside / Downside917.89%1,460.57%1,565.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)871.24927.87988.191,052.421,120.821,193.681,229.49
Payout Ratio49.28%57.42%65.57%73.71%81.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.34532.81647.93775.75917.461,074.311,137.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)497.02501.73506.45
Year 2 PV (M)563.81574.54585.38
Year 3 PV (M)629.69647.77666.19
Year 4 PV (M)694.69721.41748.89
Year 5 PV (M)758.82795.47833.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,147.8526,362.5027,623.64
Equity Value (M)28,291.8829,603.4330,964.07
Shares Outstanding (M)300.98300.98300.98
Fair Value$94.00$98.36$102.88
Upside / Downside171.91%184.51%197.59%

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