Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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ConvaTec Group Plc (CTEC.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.82 - $5.38$3.85
Multi-Stage$3.39 - $3.70$3.54
Blended Fair Value$3.69
Current Price$3.96
Upside-6.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.26%0.00%0.060.050.040.040.030.040.040.010.000.00
YoY Growth--17.62%25.65%2.68%36.41%-21.28%6.68%184.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%1.75%1.53%1.60%1.13%1.48%2.06%0.47%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)369.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.9846.2427.74
Cash Retained (M)115.90115.90115.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.98-46.24-27.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.9269.6688.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,055.012,055.012,055.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate2.61%3.61%4.61%
Fair Value$2.82$3.85$5.38
Upside / Downside-28.79%-2.81%35.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)369.90383.26397.10411.44426.30441.70454.95
Payout Ratio68.67%72.93%77.20%81.47%85.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254.00279.53306.56335.19365.48397.53420.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate2.61%3.61%4.61%
Year 1 PV (M)256.67259.18261.68
Year 2 PV (M)258.49263.55268.66
Year 3 PV (M)259.52267.18274.99
Year 4 PV (M)259.84270.12280.70
Year 5 PV (M)259.52272.42285.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,662.515,943.866,236.28
Equity Value (M)6,956.567,276.317,608.14
Shares Outstanding (M)2,055.012,055.012,055.01
Fair Value$3.39$3.54$3.70
Upside / Downside-14.52%-10.59%-6.51%

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