Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cloetta AB (publ) (CLA-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.87 - $77.51$54.83
Multi-Stage$69.59 - $76.47$72.97
Blended Fair Value$63.90
Current Price$33.92
Upside88.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.14%0.00%1.001.001.010.750.501.011.520.760.500.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-0.70%33.49%50.35%-50.17%-33.72%100.46%50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.52%5.49%4.60%2.93%1.96%4.28%6.24%2.38%1.43%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)716.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)313.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)403.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)143.2089.5053.70
Cash Retained (M)403.00403.00403.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-143.20-89.50-53.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.80313.50349.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)285.18285.18285.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.911.101.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.911.101.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.012.202.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate0.94%1.94%2.94%
Fair Value$39.87$54.83$77.51
Upside / Downside17.55%61.64%128.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)716.00729.87744.00758.41773.10788.07811.71
Payout Ratio43.72%52.97%62.23%71.49%80.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)313.00386.63462.98542.16624.22709.26750.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate0.94%1.94%2.94%
Year 1 PV (M)361.09364.67368.25
Year 2 PV (M)403.85411.89420.01
Year 3 PV (M)441.68454.94468.46
Year 4 PV (M)474.95494.05513.72
Year 5 PV (M)504.01529.48555.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,661.5518,553.9419,482.04
Equity Value (M)19,847.1320,808.9621,808.45
Shares Outstanding (M)285.18285.18285.18
Fair Value$69.59$72.97$76.47
Upside / Downside105.17%115.12%125.45%

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