Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.64 - $321.53$189.98
Multi-Stage$85.19 - $93.17$89.11
Blended Fair Value$139.55
Current Price$97.01
Upside43.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.63%6.76%0.400.370.360.340.320.300.320.290.260.24
YoY Growth--7.75%4.23%4.84%5.98%5.41%-6.33%10.23%12.57%9.65%14.70%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.30%0.28%0.31%0.28%0.59%0.72%0.72%0.99%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)403.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)372.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.6450.4030.24
Cash Retained (M)372.50372.50372.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.64-50.40-30.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.86322.10342.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.0873.0873.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.994.414.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.994.414.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.414.835.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$125.64$189.98$321.53
Upside / Downside29.52%95.84%231.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)403.20429.41457.32487.05518.70552.42568.99
Payout Ratio7.61%24.09%40.57%57.05%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.70103.45185.53277.84381.37497.18526.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)93.8494.7395.62
Year 2 PV (M)152.66155.57158.50
Year 3 PV (M)207.37213.33219.39
Year 4 PV (M)258.20268.13278.35
Year 5 PV (M)305.34320.09335.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,208.115,459.675,720.85
Equity Value (M)6,225.536,511.516,808.11
Shares Outstanding (M)73.0873.0873.08
Fair Value$85.19$89.11$93.17
Upside / Downside-12.18%-8.15%-3.96%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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