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Definitive Analysis

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Blau Farmacêutica S.A. (BLAU3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.58 - $354.30$332.03
Multi-Stage$51.09 - $55.96$53.48
Blended Fair Value$192.75
Current Price$13.90
Upside1,286.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.78%42.49%0.320.370.760.591.850.660.190.240.070.01
YoY Growth---15.20%-51.18%30.14%-68.34%179.30%252.80%-23.12%241.55%404.04%55.10%
Dividend Yield--2.48%3.27%3.37%2.24%5.02%1.80%0.51%0.66%0.19%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)316.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)253.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.3139.5723.74
Cash Retained (M)253.82253.82253.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.31-39.57-23.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.51214.25230.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.68177.68177.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.211.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.211.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$145.58$332.03$354.30
Upside / Downside947.35%2,288.68%2,448.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)316.54337.12359.03382.36407.22433.69446.70
Payout Ratio19.81%33.85%47.89%61.93%75.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.72114.12171.93236.78309.33390.32413.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.12107.12108.13
Year 2 PV (M)148.66151.49154.35
Year 3 PV (M)190.37195.84201.41
Year 4 PV (M)231.26240.16249.30
Year 5 PV (M)271.34284.45298.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,130.808,523.528,931.27
Equity Value (M)9,078.559,502.579,942.51
Shares Outstanding (M)177.68177.68177.68
Fair Value$51.09$53.48$55.96
Upside / Downside267.59%284.75%302.57%

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