Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Blackmores Limited (BKL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.23 - $20.38$17.24
Multi-Stage$29.02 - $31.95$30.45
Blended Fair Value$23.85
Current Price$70.40
Upside-66.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS-21.26%-1.59%0.990.230.552.222.783.263.211.261.010.87
YoY Growth--325.03%-57.94%-75.16%-20.08%-14.70%1.50%154.17%25.52%15.05%-24.45%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.32%0.71%2.47%1.95%3.40%2.44%1.68%3.70%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.544.712.83
Cash Retained (M)23.5923.5923.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.54-4.71-2.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.0518.8820.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.9717.9717.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.051.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.051.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.831.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.78%7.78%7.78%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Fair Value$14.23$17.24$20.38
Upside / Downside-79.79%-75.51%-71.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.6836.7035.7534.8333.9233.0534.04
Payout Ratio37.39%47.91%58.43%68.96%79.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0917.5820.8924.0126.9629.7431.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.78%7.78%7.78%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)16.1516.3216.48
Year 2 PV (M)17.6217.9918.36
Year 3 PV (M)18.6019.1819.78
Year 4 PV (M)19.1819.9820.82
Year 5 PV (M)19.4220.4521.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)430.56453.36477.11
Equity Value (M)521.52547.28574.07
Shares Outstanding (M)17.9717.9717.97
Fair Value$29.02$30.45$31.95
Upside / Downside-58.78%-56.74%-54.62%

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