Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Azelis Group N.V. (AZE.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.22 - $17.32$14.05
Multi-Stage$24.86 - $27.39$26.10
Blended Fair Value$20.08
Current Price$13.53
Upside48.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.220.280.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---21.34%866.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%1.23%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)296.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)223.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.3437.0922.25
Cash Retained (M)223.32223.32223.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.34-37.09-22.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.98186.23201.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)244.30244.30244.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.760.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.760.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.22$14.05$17.32
Upside / Downside-17.07%3.87%28.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)296.71293.75290.81287.90285.02282.17290.64
Payout Ratio24.74%37.79%50.84%63.89%76.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.39111.00147.85183.95219.32253.95268.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)103.19104.24105.29
Year 2 PV (M)127.77130.39133.04
Year 3 PV (M)147.77152.34157.01
Year 4 PV (M)163.78170.57177.56
Year 5 PV (M)176.30185.48195.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,353.565,632.335,922.60
Equity Value (M)6,072.366,375.356,690.53
Shares Outstanding (M)244.30244.30244.30
Fair Value$24.86$26.10$27.39
Upside / Downside83.71%92.88%102.41%

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