Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Atrium Ljungberg AB (publ) (ATRLJ-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.93 - $31.02$24.32
Multi-Stage$40.72 - $44.81$42.72
Blended Fair Value$33.52
Current Price$31.67
Upside5.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.91%1.06%0.701.061.041.021.031.000.950.830.750.70
YoY Growth---33.98%1.67%2.66%-1.39%2.85%5.34%13.88%11.21%7.50%10.83%
Dividend Yield--2.11%2.58%3.08%2.64%3.29%3.23%2.95%3.39%2.75%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,075.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)448.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)627.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)215.00134.3880.63
Cash Retained (M)627.00627.00627.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-215.00-134.38-80.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)412.00492.63546.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)630.53630.53630.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.780.87
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.780.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-0.94%0.06%1.06%
Fair Value$18.93$24.32$31.02
Upside / Downside-40.24%-23.22%-2.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,075.001,075.611,076.221,076.831,077.441,078.051,110.39
Payout Ratio41.67%51.34%61.00%70.67%80.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)448.00552.21656.54760.99865.56970.241,027.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-0.94%0.06%1.06%
Year 1 PV (M)514.80520.00525.20
Year 2 PV (M)570.60582.18593.87
Year 3 PV (M)616.57635.43654.67
Year 4 PV (M)653.78680.58708.20
Year 5 PV (M)683.20718.39755.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,636.1523,802.0425,015.48
Equity Value (M)25,675.0926,938.6128,252.43
Shares Outstanding (M)630.53630.53630.53
Fair Value$40.72$42.72$44.81
Upside / Downside28.58%34.90%41.48%

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