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Definitive Analysis

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Asefa Public Company Limited (ASEFA.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.64 - $3.80$3.21
Multi-Stage$6.72 - $7.41$7.06
Blended Fair Value$5.13
Current Price$3.46
Upside48.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.12%-2.52%0.190.190.230.290.210.340.330.330.210.19
YoY Growth--3.29%-18.79%-21.43%38.89%-39.39%3.13%0.00%60.00%10.00%-23.08%
Dividend Yield--6.60%4.73%6.20%6.54%4.18%12.97%5.97%5.72%2.56%3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)203.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.6925.4315.26
Cash Retained (M)129.66129.66129.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.69-25.43-15.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.97104.23114.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)526.26526.26526.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-4.52%-3.52%-2.52%
Fair Value$2.64$3.21$3.80
Upside / Downside-23.67%-7.35%9.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)203.44196.27189.36182.69176.25170.04175.14
Payout Ratio36.27%47.01%57.76%68.51%79.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.7892.27109.37125.15139.69153.04162.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-4.52%-3.52%-2.52%
Year 1 PV (M)85.6286.5187.41
Year 2 PV (M)94.1696.1598.15
Year 3 PV (M)99.98103.15106.39
Year 4 PV (M)103.53107.94112.49
Year 5 PV (M)105.25110.88116.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,046.453,209.373,379.18
Equity Value (M)3,534.993,714.003,900.36
Shares Outstanding (M)526.26526.26526.26
Fair Value$6.72$7.06$7.41
Upside / Downside94.14%103.97%114.21%

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