Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

NSC Groupe S.A. (ALNSC.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$694.96 - $1,904.18$1,073.49
Multi-Stage$2,563.62 - $2,833.74$2,695.97
Blended Fair Value$1,884.73
Current Price$74.00
Upside2,446.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.002.312.752.502.752.60
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-16.08%9.97%-9.06%5.84%7.92%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.12%3.53%3.56%3.57%3.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.871.801.08
Cash Retained (M)13.8513.8513.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.87-1.80-1.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.9712.0512.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.460.460.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.7826.1127.67
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.7826.1127.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend24.9127.2428.80
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$694.96$1,073.49$1,904.18
Upside / Downside839.14%1,350.66%2,473.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.3714.2214.0813.9413.8013.6614.07
Payout Ratio3.63%20.90%38.18%55.45%72.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.522.975.387.7310.0412.3013.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.902.932.96
Year 2 PV (M)5.115.225.32
Year 3 PV (M)7.177.397.62
Year 4 PV (M)9.089.459.84
Year 5 PV (M)10.8411.4112.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,147.831,207.601,269.84
Equity Value (M)1,182.931,243.991,307.57
Shares Outstanding (M)0.460.460.46
Fair Value$2,563.62$2,695.97$2,833.74
Upside / Downside3,364.36%3,543.20%3,729.38%

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