Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Signaux Girod S.A. (ALGIR.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.13 - $43.57$35.28
Multi-Stage$63.75 - $70.22$66.92
Blended Fair Value$51.10
Current Price$19.10
Upside167.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-5.48%0.990.000.000.000.000.009.600.420.001.07
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%2,186.31%0.00%-100.00%-38.30%
Dividend Yield--6.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%58.20%1.84%0.00%5.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.620.390.23
Cash Retained (M)2.082.082.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.62-0.39-0.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.461.691.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.031.031.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.651.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.651.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.412.642.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$28.13$35.28$43.57
Upside / Downside47.29%84.74%128.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3.093.063.033.002.972.943.03
Payout Ratio32.73%44.18%55.64%67.09%78.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.011.351.692.012.332.652.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1.261.271.28
Year 2 PV (M)1.461.491.52
Year 3 PV (M)1.621.671.72
Year 4 PV (M)1.751.821.90
Year 5 PV (M)1.841.942.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)57.4960.4963.60
Equity Value (M)65.4268.6872.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1.031.031.03
Fair Value$63.75$66.92$70.22
Upside / Downside233.78%250.39%267.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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