Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Baikowski S.A. (ALBKK.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$295.77 - $348.96$326.80
Multi-Stage$396.93 - $438.85$417.47
Blended Fair Value$372.13
Current Price$20.80
Upside1,689.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.600.850.000.000.000.992.180.960.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-29.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-54.54%128.38%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.43%5.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.19%15.59%6.83%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.380.860.52
Cash Retained (M)5.815.815.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.38-0.86-0.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.434.945.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.663.663.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.351.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.351.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.74
WACC / Discount Rate-15.94%-15.94%-15.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$295.77$326.80$348.96
Upside / Downside1,321.95%1,471.13%1,577.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.916.846.786.716.646.576.77
Payout Ratio15.97%30.78%45.58%60.39%75.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.102.113.094.054.995.926.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-15.94%-15.94%-15.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.482.512.53
Year 2 PV (M)4.284.374.46
Year 3 PV (M)6.616.827.03
Year 4 PV (M)9.6010.0010.41
Year 5 PV (M)13.4014.1014.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,418.351,492.211,569.11
Equity Value (M)1,454.731,530.001,608.36
Shares Outstanding (M)3.663.663.66
Fair Value$396.93$417.47$438.85
Upside / Downside1,808.33%1,907.08%2,009.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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