Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Pop Mart International Group Limited (9992.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.96 - $398.82$227.36
Multi-Stage$100.02 - $109.33$104.59
Blended Fair Value$165.97
Current Price$243.19
Upside-31.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS36.95%0.00%0.290.090.170.150.270.060.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--216.33%-45.85%9.42%-42.47%346.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.34%0.51%0.96%0.42%0.39%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,305.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,445.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,859.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,661.121,038.20622.92
Cash Retained (M)6,859.766,859.766,859.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,661.12-1,038.20-622.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,198.645,821.566,236.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.371,333.371,333.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.374.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.374.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.985.455.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$147.96$227.36$398.82
Upside / Downside-39.16%-6.51%63.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,305.618,845.479,420.4310,032.7610,684.8911,379.4111,720.79
Payout Ratio17.41%31.93%46.44%60.96%75.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,445.852,824.054,375.316,116.308,065.1310,241.4610,841.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,565.302,589.612,613.93
Year 2 PV (M)3,610.263,679.023,748.44
Year 3 PV (M)4,584.414,716.014,850.10
Year 4 PV (M)5,491.245,702.425,919.63
Year 5 PV (M)6,334.126,640.066,957.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)110,775.92116,126.44121,681.74
Equity Value (M)133,361.25139,453.57145,771.55
Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.371,333.371,333.37
Fair Value$100.02$104.59$109.33
Upside / Downside-58.87%-56.99%-55.05%

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