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Definitive Analysis

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Taiwan Fu Hsing Industrial Co.,Ltd. (9924.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.21 - $59.48$46.57
Multi-Stage$69.72 - $76.44$73.02
Blended Fair Value$59.79
Current Price$56.00
Upside6.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.56%4.14%3.032.932.432.632.632.432.022.832.832.02
YoY Growth--3.45%20.83%-7.69%0.00%8.33%20.00%-28.57%0.00%40.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.67%4.31%4.42%4.81%4.44%5.38%4.23%6.14%5.40%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)600.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)584.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)120.0675.0445.02
Cash Retained (M)16.1216.1216.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-120.06-75.04-45.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)-103.94-58.92-28.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)186.44186.44186.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.56-0.32-0.16
LTM Dividend per Share3.133.133.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.56-0.32-0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.582.822.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.31%0.69%1.69%
Fair Value$36.21$46.57$59.48
Upside / Downside-35.34%-16.85%6.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)600.32604.49608.68612.90617.15621.43640.07
Payout Ratio97.31%95.85%94.39%92.93%91.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)584.20579.41574.52569.54564.46559.29592.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.31%0.69%1.69%
Year 1 PV (M)537.20542.59547.98
Year 2 PV (M)493.87503.83513.88
Year 3 PV (M)453.92467.72481.79
Year 4 PV (M)417.10434.09451.59
Year 5 PV (M)383.17402.78423.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,713.9811,262.2111,832.67
Equity Value (M)12,999.2413,613.2214,251.09
Shares Outstanding (M)186.44186.44186.44
Fair Value$69.72$73.02$76.44
Upside / Downside24.51%30.39%36.50%

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