Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shmoh Almadi Co. (9622.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.14 - $7.98$6.45
Multi-Stage$12.03 - $13.24$12.63
Blended Fair Value$9.54
Current Price$15.00
Upside-36.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%1.391.721.310.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---19.31%30.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.11%8.11%6.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.940.590.35
Cash Retained (M)2.192.192.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.94-0.59-0.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.241.601.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.658.658.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.14$6.45$7.98
Upside / Downside-65.74%-56.97%-46.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.714.674.624.574.534.484.62
Payout Ratio53.61%60.89%68.17%75.44%82.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.532.843.153.453.754.034.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.652.672.70
Year 2 PV (M)2.732.792.84
Year 3 PV (M)2.792.872.96
Year 4 PV (M)2.822.933.05
Year 5 PV (M)2.822.973.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)90.3295.0299.92
Equity Value (M)104.12109.26114.60
Shares Outstanding (M)8.658.658.65
Fair Value$12.03$12.63$13.24
Upside / Downside-19.79%-15.83%-11.71%

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