Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Asahi Broadcasting Group Holdings Corporation (9405.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,070.54 - $1,571.62$1,311.59
Multi-Stage$1,608.64 - $1,769.40$1,687.46
Blended Fair Value$1,499.53
Current Price$777.00
Upside92.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-14.62%-2.61%12.0012.0026.9911.7813.7226.4419.5726.3917.6020.53
YoY Growth--0.00%-55.55%129.07%-14.14%-48.10%35.13%-25.86%49.93%-14.24%31.24%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.78%4.08%1.80%1.95%3.43%2.72%3.17%2.16%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,756.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,631.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,151.20719.50431.70
Cash Retained (M)5,631.005,631.005,631.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,151.20-719.50-431.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,479.804,911.505,199.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.7541.7541.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share107.30117.64124.53
LTM Dividend per Share2.992.992.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share107.30117.64124.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend110.29120.63127.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-1.19%-0.19%0.81%
Fair Value$1,070.54$1,311.59$1,571.62
Upside / Downside37.78%68.80%102.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,756.005,745.335,734.695,724.065,713.455,702.875,873.95
Payout Ratio2.17%19.74%37.30%54.87%72.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.001,133.972,139.213,140.724,138.505,132.585,433.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-1.19%-0.19%0.81%
Year 1 PV (M)1,029.971,040.391,050.81
Year 2 PV (M)1,764.791,800.691,836.95
Year 3 PV (M)2,353.362,425.532,499.17
Year 4 PV (M)2,816.592,932.343,051.63
Year 5 PV (M)3,172.753,336.573,507.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,024.0858,916.8561,927.89
Equity Value (M)67,161.5470,452.3873,873.55
Shares Outstanding (M)41.7541.7541.75
Fair Value$1,608.64$1,687.46$1,769.40
Upside / Downside107.03%117.18%127.72%

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