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Definitive Analysis

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Japan Transcity Corporation (9310.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,994.31 - $19,119.82$17,918.07
Multi-Stage$2,811.20 - $3,076.55$2,941.44
Blended Fair Value$10,429.75
Current Price$1,093.00
Upside854.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.33%9.91%23.6612.2411.2510.2210.2010.2010.2010.1910.6910.23
YoY Growth--93.37%8.77%10.12%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.16%-4.76%4.51%11.25%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.18%1.81%2.08%1.90%2.02%2.12%1.89%2.35%3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,041.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,449.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,592.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,208.20755.13453.08
Cash Retained (M)3,592.003,592.003,592.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,208.20-755.13-453.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,383.802,836.883,138.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.8462.8462.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share37.9445.1549.95
LTM Dividend per Share38.9738.9738.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share37.9445.1549.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend76.9184.1288.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,994.31$17,918.07$19,119.82
Upside / Downside631.41%1,539.35%1,649.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,041.006,433.676,851.857,297.227,771.548,276.698,524.99
Payout Ratio40.54%50.43%60.32%70.22%80.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,449.003,244.614,133.305,123.816,225.627,449.027,885.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,017.553,046.153,074.75
Year 2 PV (M)3,575.043,643.133,711.87
Year 3 PV (M)4,121.634,239.954,360.51
Year 4 PV (M)4,657.484,836.595,020.83
Year 5 PV (M)5,182.745,433.075,692.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)156,088.59163,627.73171,455.41
Equity Value (M)176,643.04184,826.63193,316.35
Shares Outstanding (M)62.8462.8462.84
Fair Value$2,811.20$2,941.44$3,076.55
Upside / Downside157.20%169.12%181.48%

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