Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (8985.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173,600.51 - $425,138.72$258,845.13
Multi-Stage$163,674.30 - $179,375.29$171,378.48
Blended Fair Value$215,111.81
Current Price$76,100.00
Upside182.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.18%10.65%2,871.52625.87335.94376.693,382.823,205.933,034.582,642.951,921.751,235.82
YoY Growth--358.81%86.30%-10.82%-88.86%5.52%5.65%14.82%37.53%55.50%18.40%
Dividend Yield--4.07%0.90%0.43%0.67%6.38%3.95%3.87%3.50%2.44%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39,274.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,987.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,286.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,854.834,909.272,945.56
Cash Retained (M)32,286.2932,286.2932,286.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,854.83-4,909.27-2,945.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)24,431.4627,377.0229,340.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.874.874.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share5,020.785,626.116,029.66
LTM Dividend per Share1,436.041,436.041,436.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share5,020.785,626.116,029.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,456.827,062.157,465.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Fair Value$173,600.51$258,845.13$425,138.72
Upside / Downside128.12%240.14%458.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39,274.1541,103.7543,018.5945,022.6247,120.0249,315.1350,794.58
Payout Ratio17.79%32.23%46.68%61.12%75.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,987.8613,249.3920,079.1427,516.4835,603.1844,383.6146,984.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)12,205.6612,323.4112,441.16
Year 2 PV (M)17,040.2617,370.6217,704.16
Year 3 PV (M)21,512.4322,141.0522,781.80
Year 4 PV (M)25,641.9426,645.8327,678.91
Year 5 PV (M)29,447.6230,895.7132,400.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)690,602.37724,562.72759,846.12
Equity Value (M)796,450.28833,939.34872,852.35
Shares Outstanding (M)4.874.874.87
Fair Value$163,674.30$171,378.48$179,375.29
Upside / Downside115.08%125.20%135.71%

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