Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Gas Co., Ltd. (8174.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,847.07 - $23,032.12$21,584.47
Multi-Stage$3,679.59 - $4,022.53$3,847.93
Blended Fair Value$12,716.20
Current Price$2,651.00
Upside379.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.61%21.89%85.6773.0160.3349.0935.6230.9217.9814.0813.298.24
YoY Growth--17.34%21.03%22.90%37.81%15.19%71.96%27.73%5.96%61.15%-30.31%
Dividend Yield--3.23%3.05%2.98%2.55%1.89%2.00%1.89%0.65%1.10%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,726.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,269.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,457.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,545.201,590.75954.45
Cash Retained (M)2,457.002,457.002,457.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,545.20-1,590.75-954.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)-88.20866.251,502.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)109.88109.88109.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.807.8813.67
LTM Dividend per Share93.4593.4593.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.807.8813.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend92.65101.34107.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11,847.07$21,584.47$23,032.12
Upside / Downside346.89%714.20%768.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,726.0013,553.1914,434.1515,372.3716,371.5717,435.7217,958.79
Payout Ratio80.69%82.55%84.42%86.28%88.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,269.0011,188.7612,184.7113,262.8514,429.6815,692.1516,611.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,424.3610,523.1710,621.97
Year 2 PV (M)10,576.6810,778.1410,981.50
Year 3 PV (M)10,726.0211,033.9211,347.67
Year 4 PV (M)10,872.4011,290.5211,720.59
Year 5 PV (M)11,015.8611,547.9312,100.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)350,716.04367,655.76385,243.80
Equity Value (M)404,331.37422,829.45442,015.89
Shares Outstanding (M)109.88109.88109.88
Fair Value$3,679.59$3,847.93$4,022.53
Upside / Downside38.80%45.15%51.74%

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