Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FP Corporation (7947.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,006.78 - $10,967.95$6,186.21
Multi-Stage$4,679.01 - $5,133.30$4,901.87
Blended Fair Value$5,544.04
Current Price$2,654.00
Upside108.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.58%7.01%56.9547.5647.5546.0441.9241.4241.4440.8238.3630.22
YoY Growth--19.73%0.03%3.28%9.82%1.22%-0.06%1.51%6.42%26.92%4.49%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.97%1.62%1.62%1.02%0.96%1.24%1.33%1.26%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,838.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,970.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,868.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,767.601,729.751,037.85
Cash Retained (M)8,868.008,868.008,868.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,767.60-1,729.75-1,037.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,100.407,138.257,830.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.8680.8680.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share75.4488.2796.83
LTM Dividend per Share61.4661.4661.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share75.4488.2796.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend136.90149.74158.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Fair Value$4,006.78$6,186.21$10,967.95
Upside / Downside50.97%133.09%313.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,838.0014,364.4714,910.9715,478.2516,067.1316,678.4017,178.75
Payout Ratio35.92%46.73%57.55%68.37%79.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,970.006,712.878,581.1610,581.9012,722.4515,010.5615,890.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)6,253.186,314.016,374.84
Year 2 PV (M)7,446.167,591.727,738.69
Year 3 PV (M)8,553.478,805.519,062.45
Year 4 PV (M)9,579.499,957.6910,346.98
Year 5 PV (M)10,528.3811,050.5011,593.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)336,002.55352,665.40369,982.85
Equity Value (M)378,363.23396,384.83415,098.94
Shares Outstanding (M)80.8680.8680.86
Fair Value$4,679.01$4,901.87$5,133.30
Upside / Downside76.30%84.70%93.42%

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