Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Canon Inc. (7751.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,962.96 - $3,225.50$2,524.78
Multi-Stage$3,580.64 - $3,924.22$3,749.16
Blended Fair Value$3,136.97
Current Price$4,189.00
Upside-25.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.77%-0.30%152.93141.41128.9496.05137.16185.30192.51176.01177.00188.78
YoY Growth--8.15%9.67%34.24%-29.97%-25.98%-3.74%9.38%-0.56%-6.24%19.84%
Dividend Yield--3.29%3.15%4.36%3.21%5.48%7.86%5.92%4.57%5.10%5.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)161,027.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147,644.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,383.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32,205.4020,128.3812,077.03
Cash Retained (M)13,383.0013,383.0013,383.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-32,205.40-20,128.38-12,077.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18,822.40-6,745.381,305.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)925.45925.45925.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share-20.34-7.291.41
LTM Dividend per Share159.54159.54159.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share-20.34-7.291.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend139.20152.25160.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Fair Value$1,962.96$2,524.78$3,225.50
Upside / Downside-53.14%-39.73%-23.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)161,027.00162,515.11164,016.98165,532.73167,062.48168,606.37173,664.56
Payout Ratio91.69%91.35%91.01%90.68%90.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147,644.00148,459.47149,277.40150,097.78150,920.56151,745.74160,639.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-0.08%0.92%1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)137,359.54138,734.18140,108.82
Year 2 PV (M)127,789.72130,360.25132,956.38
Year 3 PV (M)118,884.99122,490.09126,167.34
Year 4 PV (M)110,599.23115,093.46119,723.29
Year 5 PV (M)102,889.51108,141.98113,606.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,716,196.552,854,857.172,999,123.68
Equity Value (M)3,313,719.543,469,677.123,631,686.30
Shares Outstanding (M)925.45925.45925.45
Fair Value$3,580.64$3,749.16$3,924.22
Upside / Downside-14.52%-10.50%-6.32%

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