Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Omni-Plus System Limited (7699.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.03 - $5.71$4.86
Multi-Stage$6.26 - $6.86$6.55
Blended Fair Value$5.71
Current Price$5.41
Upside5.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS-22.20%0.00%0.270.240.240.210.000.950.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.50%0.00%16.71%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.99%7.52%6.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.591.620.97
Cash Retained (M)7.287.287.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.59-1.62-0.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.695.666.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.0621.0621.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.03$4.86$5.71
Upside / Downside-25.48%-10.17%5.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12.9712.8412.7112.5812.4612.3312.70
Payout Ratio43.84%53.07%62.31%71.54%80.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.696.817.929.0010.0611.1011.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.136.206.26
Year 2 PV (M)6.426.556.68
Year 3 PV (M)6.566.776.97
Year 4 PV (M)6.606.887.16
Year 5 PV (M)6.566.907.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)99.50104.68110.08
Equity Value (M)131.78137.97144.41
Shares Outstanding (M)21.0621.0621.06
Fair Value$6.26$6.55$6.86
Upside / Downside15.67%21.11%26.76%

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