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Definitive Analysis

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Neousys Technology Inc. (6922.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.15 - $101.82$83.45
Multi-Stage$141.25 - $155.25$148.11
Blended Fair Value$115.78
Current Price$196.00
Upside-40.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%3.504.993.112.151.490.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---29.84%60.68%44.74%43.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.12%4.44%2.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)201.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.2925.1815.11
Cash Retained (M)77.9577.9577.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.29-25.18-15.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.6652.7762.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.1026.1026.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.442.022.41
LTM Dividend per Share4.734.734.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.442.022.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.176.757.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$67.15$83.45$101.82
Upside / Downside-65.74%-57.42%-48.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)201.43199.41197.42195.45193.49191.56197.30
Payout Ratio61.30%67.04%72.78%78.52%84.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.48133.69143.69153.47163.04172.40182.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)123.67124.93126.20
Year 2 PV (M)122.95125.48128.02
Year 3 PV (M)121.48125.24129.07
Year 4 PV (M)119.39124.33129.43
Year 5 PV (M)116.78122.86129.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,082.903,243.433,410.59
Equity Value (M)3,687.183,866.284,052.51
Shares Outstanding (M)26.1026.1026.10
Fair Value$141.25$148.11$155.25
Upside / Downside-27.93%-24.43%-20.79%

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