Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cubic Sensor and Instrument Co., Ltd (688665.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$267.64 - $315.33$295.51
Multi-Stage$209.45 - $229.89$219.48
Blended Fair Value$257.49
Current Price$63.26
Upside307.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS58.50%0.00%0.630.650.890.310.210.060.070.170.000.00
YoY Growth---2.69%-27.36%186.67%49.76%229.70%-8.85%-59.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.70%1.61%1.38%0.33%0.49%0.14%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)158.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.6919.8011.88
Cash Retained (M)120.44120.44120.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.69-19.80-11.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.76100.64108.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.9299.9299.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.011.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.011.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.271.391.47
WACC / Discount Rate-0.58%-0.58%-0.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$267.64$295.51$315.33
Upside / Downside323.08%367.13%398.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)158.43168.73179.69191.37203.81217.06223.57
Payout Ratio23.98%37.18%50.39%63.59%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.9962.7390.54121.70156.52195.36206.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.58%-0.58%-0.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)62.5163.1063.69
Year 2 PV (M)89.8991.6093.33
Year 3 PV (M)120.38123.84127.36
Year 4 PV (M)154.27160.20166.30
Year 5 PV (M)191.85201.12210.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,309.6721,290.6422,309.15
Equity Value (M)20,928.5721,930.5022,970.57
Shares Outstanding (M)99.9299.9299.92
Fair Value$209.45$219.48$229.89
Upside / Downside231.10%246.95%263.40%

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